Methodology & Calibration¶

Spindle's distribution weights are calibrated against real-world data from authoritative public sources. All defaults in each domain's profiles/default.json reflect these calibrated values.

Calibration Approach¶

Every domain has a default profile with distribution weights derived from published statistics. Users can override any weight via named profiles or the overrides parameter (see Distribution Profiles).

Confidence Levels¶

Level	Meaning	Examples
High	Based on authoritative published statistics	Census demographics, NRF return rates, CMS claims data
Medium	Derived from multiple consistent industry sources	Loyalty tiers, promotion types, seasonal patterns
Low	Informed estimates without direct public benchmarks	Addresses per customer, product lifecycle phases

Domain Calibration Status¶

All 13 domains have distribution parameters sourced from published data. The depth varies by domain:

Domain	Sources	Key References
Retail	20+	NRF, Census, Statista, Shopify, CapitalOne Shopping
Healthcare	20+	CDC, CMS, AAMC, KFF, AHA, BLS, MEPS
HR	10+	BLS JOLTS, BLS OEWS, SHRM, ATD, Mercer
Education	10+	NCES IPEDS, AAUP, GradeInflation.com
Insurance	10+	NAIC, AM Best, III, KFF, LOMA
Telecom	8+	CTIA, FCC, Counterpoint, JD Power
Financial	8+	FDIC, Federal Reserve, FICO, Fed Payments Study
Capital Markets	8+	SEC EDGAR, S&P/MSCI GICS, FactSet, CRSP
Marketing	6+	HubSpot, Salesforce, Belkins, Mailchimp
Real Estate	5+	NAR, Census Bureau
Manufacturing	5+	LNS Research, Gartner, ASQ, OEE.com
Supply Chain	5+	ISM, APQC, APICS/ASCM
IoT	5+	Gartner, McKinsey, Frost & Sullivan, IEEE

All domains produce relationally correct data with proper FK integrity. Users can override any distribution via profiles or the overrides parameter. Full per-parameter citations are in METHODOLOGY.md.

Retail Domain Sources¶

Customer Demographics: CapitalOne Shopping Research, US Census Bureau, Antavo/Mastercard tiered program guides, Bond Brand Loyalty Report 2024.

Order Patterns: Pareto alpha=1.16 (80/20 rule, Shopify/Unific/SmartKarrot), NRF/Happy Returns 2024 (16.9% return rate), Statista (4.95 units/transaction), Zipf alpha=1.5 (SKU concentration).

Seasonality: US Census Monthly Retail Trade (FRED), NRF holiday sales reports, Doofinder/SaleCycle/ECDB weekday patterns, SureBright hour-of-day data.

Returns: NRF/Happy Returns 2024, Channelwill 2025, Shopify return reason surveys.

Healthcare Domain Sources¶

Provider Workforce: AAMC 2024 Key Findings, BLS OES May 2023, AMA Physician Masterfile.

Patient Demographics: US Census Bureau 2020, Williams Institute (nonbinary estimates), KFF Health Insurance Coverage 2023.

Encounters: CDC NAMCS (~860M office visits), CDC NHAMCS (155M ED visits), AHA (33.7M inpatient), CMS/Epic telehealth data. Patient frequency: MEPS Statistical Brief #560 (top 5% = 51.2% of spending).

Diagnoses & Procedures: CMS top diagnosis codes from Medicare FFS claims 2022, CMS Medicare Physician Fee Schedule 2024, IQVIA top 200 drugs.

Claims: KFF ACA Marketplace denial data 2023 (19-20% denial rate), Health Affairs MA study 2024, Aptarro industry-wide statistics, FAIR Health benchmark data.

HR Domain Sources¶

Employee Demographics: BLS Current Population Survey 2024 (83% full-time), BLS OEWS May 2023 (median wage $48,060), Payscale Compensation Best Practices Report 2024 (G1-G7 grade structure mirrors Mercer/Hay Group).

Turnover & Separations: BLS JOLTS 2024 (quits 3.2M vs layoffs 1.7M monthly, ~65% voluntary), Work Institute Retention Report 2024, Gallup State of the Global Workplace 2024. SHRM data: 65-75% of separations are rehire-eligible.

Performance Reviews: SHRM/Mercer performance management research (bell curve with positive skew), Betterworks 2024 Performance Enablement Report. 65% of organizations use annual reviews.

Leave & Time Off: BLS Employee Benefits Survey 2024, SHRM Benefits Report. BLS absence data: mean duration 4.4 days.

Training & Development: ATD State of the Industry Report 2024 (70-85% completion for mandatory, 40-60% voluntary), LinkedIn Learning Workplace Learning Report.

Education Domain Sources¶

Faculty Composition: AAUP Data Snapshot 2023 (32% tenured/tenure-track, 68% contingent), NCES IPEDS Human Resources Survey.

Student Demographics: NCES Condition of Education 2024 (~17M undergraduate, ~3.8M graduate), NCES 6-year graduation rate ~64% at 4-year institutions, 32.9% dropout rate nationally. GradeCalcTools 2024: average GPA rose 0.43 points since 1990.

Grades: Stuart Rojstaczer's GradeInflation.com (2024), NCES grade inflation trends. Standard accreditation: 3-credit courses dominate (60%).

Financial Aid: NCES 2024: average federal grant aid ~$6,700; 86% of first-time full-time undergrads received some aid (2021-22).

Insurance Domain Sources¶

Policy Portfolio: NAIC 2024 Market Share Report (auto largest at ~35% of P&C premiums, $344B), III industry composition. Experian 2024: average FICO 715, 71.2% score 670+.

Claims: NAIC claims data; homeowners denial rate ~37% nationally, health denial rate ~16% (KFF 2023), life denial rate ~10-20%. AM Best 2023: US individual life lapse ratio 5.1.

Deductibles & Coverage: III consumer preference data, state-level deductible requirements. NAIC coverage attachment rates.

Premium Payments: III digital adoption survey 2024, JD Power Insurance Digital Experience Study. Industry delinquency benchmarks.

Telecom Domain Sources¶

Subscriber Base: CTIA 2024 Annual Survey (postpaid ~59%, prepaid ~15%), FCC 2024 Communications Marketplace Report. Industry churn rate ~1.6% monthly.

Device Mix: Counterpoint/BankMyCell 2024 (Apple 61%, Samsung 23% in US sales; adjusted for subscriber base including older devices). CTIA device mix data, IDC connected device forecast.

Usage Patterns: CTIA Annual Survey (100+ trillion MB data traffic 2023, average 17.5 GB/month per smartphone). FCC voice usage statistics.

Billing & Churn: JD Power Wireless Customer Satisfaction Study 2024. Carrier financial reports (bad debt rate ~1-3%).

Financial Domain Sources¶

Account Types: FDIC Summary of Deposits 2024 (76,000+ branch offices, $14.5T in deposits), Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances. FICO 2024: average US score 717.

Cards: Nilson Report card market share (Visa 52%, Mastercard 24%), Federal Reserve debit card survey 2024.

Transactions: Federal Reserve Payments Study 2022 (204B card payments, 30B ACH, 3.4B checks). Log-normal amount distribution (median debit ~$40, credit ~$50).

Loans: Federal Reserve Consumer Credit G.19 2024 ($5.1T total consumer credit). FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Q4 2024 delinquency/charge-off rates.

Fraud: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 2024 (card-present fraud 5.1-14.2 basis points, card-not-present 41.6 bps). Pulse debit issuer study 2023.

Capital Markets Domain Sources¶

Company Reference Data: SEC EDGAR CIK database (110 real S&P 500 tickers), MSCI/S&P Global Industry Classification Standard (11 sectors, 61 industries).

Pricing (GBM Model): Geometric Brownian Motion calibrated to S&P 500 price range per Hull's "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives." Four market cap tiers with tier-specific drift (6-12%), volatility (18-35%), and price ranges calibrated from CRSP historical returns and VIX baseline volatility.

Sector Correlations: MSCI/FactSet sector correlation matrices (Info Tech / Comm Services 0.75 highest, 0.40 default baseline).

Corporate Actions: S&P Dow Jones (~80% of S&P 500 pay quarterly dividends), FactSet Earnings Insight 2024 (beat estimates by ~4% on average), SEC Form 4 filing data (insider transactions).

Supply Chain Domain Sources¶

Warehouse & Supplier: CSCMP State of Logistics Report, NAIOP industrial real estate data. US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics (US 35%, China 20%, Germany 10%). ISM Manufacturing PMI Supplier Deliveries Index; APQC benchmarks (79-day global average lead time, April 2024).

Purchasing: ISM Report on Business 2024, APICS/ASCM procurement priority conventions. ERP transaction lifecycle analytics.

Shipment & Quality: ANSI/ASQ AQL (Acceptable Quality Level) standards for incoming inspection benchmarks. Carrier performance data for delivery statistics.

Inventory: ABC inventory analysis conventions, S&OP practice surveys for demand planning technology adoption.

IoT Domain Sources¶

Device & Sensor: Gartner 2025 IoT installed base forecasts, IDC IoT device taxonomy. Azure IoT Hub protocol statistics (MQTT 35%, HTTP 25%, CoAP 15%).

Alerts & Maintenance: ISA-18.2 alarm management standard for alert severity/type distributions. Gartner 2025: 22% MTTR reduction with IoT monitoring. McKinsey 2024: IoT reduces unplanned downtime 35%.

Sensor Quality: Sensor error/anomaly rates and transmission loss data (Good 90%, Suspect 7%, Bad 3%). Frost & Sullivan: 38% MTBF improvement with IoT 2024.

Manufacturing Domain Sources¶

Production Lines & Equipment: ISA-95 manufacturing operations management standard for line types and work order lifecycle. Equipment uptime benchmarks from maintenance scheduling data.

Work Orders & Quality: ASQ quality benchmarks (AQL standards). Defect root causes follow Ishikawa/fishbone analysis conventions and 8D report patterns. QC pass/rework/fail (82/10/8%) from ASQ industry benchmarks.

Production Metrics: LNS Research OEE benchmarks (global average 55-60%, world-class 85%). Six Sigma first-pass yield benchmarks.

Downtime: Gartner 2025: $260K/hr average large-plant downtime cost. TPM loss categories for cause distribution.

Marketing Domain Sources¶

Campaign & Channel Mix: HubSpot State of Marketing 2024, MarketingProfs channel mix benchmarks. Salesforce/HubSpot CRM analytics for campaign lifecycle.

Lead Generation & Funnel: Belkins/HubSpot 2024 (31% lead-to-MQL), HubSpot 2024 Sales Trends Report (20% MQL-to-SQL), Salesforce 2025 (40-60% SQL-to-Opportunity). First Page Sage B2B conversion rates. Overall win rate 15-25%; qualified opportunity close ~29%.

Email & Engagement: Mailchimp Email Marketing Benchmarks 2024 (20-25% open rate), Campaign Monitor B2B averages. Google Analytics traffic attribution data.

Real Estate Domain Sources¶

Property Characteristics: US Census Bureau American Housing Survey (bedroom/bathroom distributions, housing stock age), Zillow Home Value Index.

Listings & Transactions: NAR April 2024 (average 26 days on market, ~33% sold above list price, median existing-home price ~$400K with 5.7% YoY increase). MLS historical status transitions.

Agent & Market: NAR member profile survey (commission rates, agent demographics). Post-2024 NAR settlement adjustments for commission rates (2.5-6.0%).

Seasonality: NAR monthly existing home sales (Mar-Jun peak ~40% of annual, Dec-Jan trough ~12%).

Full Source List¶

Retail¶

Healthcare¶

HR¶

Education¶

Insurance¶

Telecom¶

Financial¶

Capital Markets¶

Supply Chain¶

IoT¶

Manufacturing¶

Marketing¶

Real Estate¶

For the complete per-parameter citation trail, see METHODOLOGY.md in the repository.